Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures settled mostly 2 to 4 3/4 cents higher today, with nearby months the strongest. USDA showed 617,740 MT of corn shipments during the week that ended on June 20 in this morning’s Export Inspections report. That was down 8.9% from last week and less than half of the same week last year. In addition, 109,914 MT of sorghum was shipped to China. After the close, NASS reported that 96% of the US corn crop has been planted, a little less than expected but also implying fewer abandoned acres. Crop condition ratings declined, with 56% of the crop rated good or excellent. The Brugler500 index dropped 5 points to 349. It was 390 last year. It was 355 this week in 1993, which some are using as a weather analog year.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.47, up 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.52, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.57 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.62 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures settled 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher on Monday. Nearby soymeal was up $2/ton, with bean oil down 9 points. A total of 682,155 MT of US soybeans were exported in the week that ended 6/20. Those inspections were slightly higher than the week prior and 32.02% larger than the same week in 2018. Of that total, 529,638 MT (77.64%) were headed to China. Trade ideas for soybean planting progress were in the 86-89% range. USDA calculated 85% of intended acreage planted. The 5-year average is 97% for this date. The initial crop condition ratings showed 54% good or excellent, with the Brugler500 index (which weights all five condition categories) at 349. That was the lowest for this week since 2012.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.09, up 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.14, up 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.20 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/2, up 5 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $317.60, up $2.00,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.38, down $0.06

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures were up 7 1/2 to 13 cents per bushel across the three markets today. KC HRW was the strongest, with MPLS exhibiting the most single digit gains. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated that 406,386 MT of wheat was shipped in the week of June 20. That was a 6.28% rise from last week and 11.54% larger than the same week in 2018. Condition ratings declined vs. last week for both winter wheat and spring wheat, with the latter 75% good or excellent vs. 77% a week earlier. Maturity continues to lag, with winter wheat 94% heading vs. 99% average, and spring wheat 7% vs. 29%. Winter wheat harvesting is 15% completed vs the 34% average for this week. Taiwanese importers purchased 83,200 MT of wheat from the US on Monday.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.38, up 12 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.65 1/2, up 13 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.43 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures shook off early losses to close mixed. Net changes from Friday were -47 to +37 cents. Feeder cattle futures were $1.70 to $2.45 lower with the added influence of higher feed prices. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report indicated June 1 on feed numbers up 1.62% from last year at 11.74 million head. That was the largest June 1 inventory since 1996. May placements were down 2.8% yr/yr, with marketings up 0.68%. The CME feeder cattle index was down 2 cents @ $131.41 on June 21. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this afternoon. Choice boxes were down 8 cents at $219.74 with Select boxes 26 cents higher @ $199.81. USDA estimated Monday FI cattle slaughter was 121,000. That was 1,000 head larger than last Monday and 5,000 head more than the same Monday a year ago.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $106.925, up $0.375,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $102.425, up $0.200,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $104.025, down $0.125,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.775, down $1.900

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $132.350, down $1.700

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $132.600, down $1.900

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were down $1.47 to $3.67 today with multiple front month contracts using today’s expanded limits ($4.50) to “adjust” more than $3. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 41 cents from the previous day @ $79.14 on June 20. The Fresh Bacon Index was down $1.93 in the week that ended on June 21 to $137.73/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 60 cents $77.33. The pork belly primal picked up $6.04 to put on some value. The national average base hog price was down $0.34 on Monday afternoon at $73.51 per hundred pounds. Estimated Monday FI hog slaughter was 448,000 head. That was down 19,000 from the previous week but 14,000 more than the same Monday in 2018. Chinese pork imports from all origins during May totaled 187,459 MT, the largest monthly total since August 2016.

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $72.850, down $3.400,

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $74.225, down $3.675

Oct 19 Hogs closed at $69.050, down $3.675

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Showing Gains on Monday

Cotton futures were 5 to 111 points higher on Monday, with nearby July recovering a portion of the massive losses seen last week. The US and China are expected to meet privately at this week’s G-20 gathering, with trade talks taking place prior to a Trump/Xi meeting. The Cotlook A index for June 20 was down 105 points from the previous day to 76.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday. This afternoon NASS indicated that cotton planting is wrapping up, with 96% completed vs. the 98% average pace. Missouri is the notable laggard. Boll set is at 3%, just a little behind the 5% average pace. Most of that is in Arizona. Crop condition rating dropped 1 point on the Brugler500 Index due to more crop shifting into the poor category than improved to good.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 62.3, up 111 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 65.36, up 63 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 65.69, up 13 points

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 66.44, up 5 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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